USA-presidenziali Novembre 2012

[shiloh]

Another Analysis of Rasmussen Polls .

Last Thursday we gave an analysis of Rasmussen polls and presented data showing that Rasmussen
has a bias of about 2 point compared to the other pollsters.

Now Alan Abramowitz,
a professor of political science at Emory University,
has done a similar analysis with a different polling database and has also concluded that Rasmussen is biased,
with his estimate being 3 points.

With Rasmussen being the most prolific pollster,
his prodigious output affects the widely cited Real Clear Politics averages as well as ours

(although we also have a Rasmussen-free page, which RCP does not).

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/P ... ml#item-10

[shiloh]

News from the Votemaster

One Week to Go

Hurricane or no hurricane, election day is a week from today.

People may have to wade to the polls and vote by candletight, but elections are not called off due to the mere inconvenience of 80 MPH winds, flooded roads, and power outages.

Let's take a quick run down of where we are now.

There were five national polls released yesterday, from Politico, Pew, WaPo, Rasmussen, and Gallup.
The results were Obama+1, tie, tie, Romney+2, and Romney+5, respectively.

The straight average puts Romney ahead by 1.2 points.

However, both Gallup and Rasmussen have had strong biases in the direction of Romney all year, and Rasmussen does not call cell phones.

Gallup does, but there have been persistent issues about whether it is sampling enough minorities.
All things considered, it is probably very close to even at this point.
The popular vote could be a real nailbiter and we may not know how it turns out until well after election day, when all the absentee and provisional ballots have been counted.

The electoral-vote situation is somewhat different.
Here is a quick rundown of the key states.

•Florida.
As the most populous swing state, Florida is always crucial. Since the third debate, Romney has led in three polls and Obama in two. When Romney picked Paul Ryan to be his running mate, Democrats thought he was giving away Florida. It didn't happen. The state is likely to be very close, but Romney probably has a small edge right now.


•Ohio.
This is the one everybody will be watching. It will probably determine the election. If we look at the Ohio polls taken entirely after the third debate, Obama has led in four, tied in one and trailed in one. The two where he was tied or behind are both from Rasmussen. Even without taking Rasmussen's not calling cell phones into account, Obama has a small, but consistent lead in Ohio. If the hurricane does not disrupt the election there too much and there aren't too many fights of who is eligible to vote, Obama is likely to win the state by 1-2%.


•North Carolina.
To everyone's surprise, Obama won North Carolina in 2008, but the margin of victory was a mere 14,000 votes. There have been three polls taken all or mostly after the third debate. Rasmussen gives Romney a 6-point lead and the other two say it is an exact tie. For demographic and other reasons, this is going to be a tougher nut for Obama to crack than Virginia. Our best guess is that Romney has a small lead here.


•Virginia.
This is probably the second-most watched state. Since the third debate, Obama has led in two polls, trailed in two polls, and been tied in two polls. Let's call it a tie. The hurricane might play a bigger roll here than in Ohio, with unknown effects. At present, Virginia looks like the mother of all tossups. For Obama, a loss in Ohio could be countered with a win here, although Ohio is worth a bit more (18 vs. 13 EVs). To be competitive, Romney has to win both of these states.


•Colorado.
Obama has led in three of the five post-debate polls, trailed in one and was tied in one. The state has gotten less attention than some of the other swing states, but its 9 EVs could be crucial if the larger swing states split. Obama won Colorado by 9 points in 2008. At 7.4%, unemployment is lower than the national average and falling. All in all, Obama has a very slight edge here.


•Nevada.
Nothing is in the bag in this election, but Romney has not led in even one of the 26 nonpartisan polls taken since February 1. Even Rasmussen has put Obama ahead seven times and tied once. A Romney win here would be a major upset. No one is expecting it. The big question in Nevada is whether Obama's coattails can pull Shelley Berkley over the finish line first in her Senate race with Dean Heller.


•Iowa.
There hasn't been much post-debate polling here, but the one poll taken, from PPP, puts Obama ahead by 2 points. Over the course of the year, Obama has led in 10 polls and Romney in five. Two were ties. Probably Obama has a slight edge here, but it could be very close. The influential Des Moines Register endorsed Romney, which might help him a little, but it is not clear that newspaper endorsements mean much any more.


•New Hampshire.
While last and least, in what could be such a close election, even New Hampshire's four electoral votes could matter. Since the third debate, Obama has led in two polls and trailed by 2 points in a Rasmussen poll. Normally, a state close to one where a candidate had been governor favors him, but New Hampshire likes to be contrary. Probably Obama has a slight lead here.


So what's the bottom line?
With all the usual caveats about hurricanes, voter ID laws, court decisions, balky or hacked voting machines, etc.,

Obama probably has a very small edge in Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire on the basis of polls won, rather than their arithmetic averages (which is what the map shows).

For example, North Carolina shows a solid Romney lead, but that is on the basis of one Rasmussen poll, whereas two other polls show it is tied.
If Obama wins these five swing states and loses the others, he gets 43 electoral votes from them.
Added to his base of 242 plus New Mexico, he has 290, which gives him some margin for error.
But again, as we all know, in politics a week is a long time.
Obama could flub handling Hurricane Sandy or something else unexpected could happen.
It would be foolish to make a call at this point.

Another factor to consider for the coming week is that the polling data is going to be sparser and less reliable as both the pollsters and respondents may be under water and lacking power and/or telephone service.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/P ... tml#item-1

[shiloh]

October 30, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)


http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html

*********************************************

premesso che Zogby è un sondaggista la cui reputazione sta a zero,
(come rasmussen del resto...)
ecco un altro sondaggio che assegna l'Ohio ad Obama al di fuori del margine di errore.

e se Romney non vince questo stato è "toasted".

[shiloh]

October 30, 2012

Obama's High-Wire Act

First Read:
"Now with Sandy moving away from the East Coast, the real impact begins today
-- assessing the damage, realizing what happened, and the government (federal, state, and local) beginning the recovery.

And this is the true high-wire act for President Obama and his administration:

making sure the recovery and relief begins immediately and as smoothly as possible.

Every hiccup could get amplified;
that's the real political danger for the president.
Then again, he has the bully pulpit and a job to do.
Already, the late-night calls to Republican Gov. Chris Christie are public
(thanks to Christie, not the president, by the way)."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... e_act.html

[shiloh]

October 30, 2012

Race Enters Final Week as Close as Ever

A new New York Times/CBS News poll finds President Obama and Mitt Romney enter the closing week of the campaign in an exceedingly narrow race,
with the president edging the challenger 48% to 47%.

"The race for the White House,
which has been interrupted by the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy's deadly assault on the East Coast,
is heading toward an uncertain conclusion.
The president was set to stay off the campaign trail for a third straight day to tour storm damage on Wednesday with Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, a Republican.
Mr. Romney was set to resume a full schedule in Florida."

By comparison, the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll shows Romney ahead 49% to 48%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...e_as_ever.html

[shiloh]

October 30, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Project New America)

Florida: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (SurveyUSA)

North Carolina: Romney 50%, Obama 45% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Project New America)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Another state that has never been considered a swing state but appears close:

Oregon: Obama 47%, Romney 41% (Elway)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...ate_polls.html

[shiloh]

16:33 Obama domani non andrà in Ohio .
–Barack Obama non andrà domani alla prevista manifestazione elettorale in Ohio per rimanere a Washington e seguire da vicino l'evolversi dell'emergenza determinata dall'uragano Sandy.
Lo ha reso noto il portavoce della Casa Bianca, Jay Carney,
spiegando che il presidente
"intende monitorare la risposta all'uragano ed assicurarsi che tutte le risorse federale disponibili siano fornite in aiuto delle operazioni di soccorso a livello statale e locale".
Domani sarà quindi il terzo giorno di stop della campagna elettorale di Obama a causa dell'uragano, ad una settimana esatta dal voto del sei novembre.

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2012/10 ... ef=HRER3-1

ottima decisione.
non so quanto pagherà in termini elettorali,ma si tratta di una decisione da Commander in Chief.

[shiloh]

16:33 Obama domani non andrà in Ohio .
–Barack Obama non andrà domani alla prevista manifestazione elettorale in Ohio per rimanere a Washington e seguire da vicino l'evolversi dell'emergenza determinata dall'uragano Sandy.
Lo ha reso noto il portavoce della Casa Bianca, Jay Carney,
spiegando che il presidente
"intende monitorare la risposta all'uragano ed assicurarsi che tutte le risorse federale disponibili siano fornite in aiuto delle operazioni di soccorso a livello statale e locale".
Domani sarà quindi il terzo giorno di stop della campagna elettorale di Obama a causa dell'uragano, ad una settimana esatta dal voto del sei novembre.

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2012/10 ... ef=HRER3-1

ottima decisione.
non so quanto pagherà in termini elettorali,ma si tratta di una decisione da Commander in Chief.

October 31, 2012

Storm Provides Obama with Commander-in-Chief Moment

Washington Post:
"For a day at least, Hurricane Sandy appears to have done for President Obama what he has not been able to do for himself."

"In a campaign notable mostly for its negativity,
the historic storm provided Obama with a commander-in-chief moment a week before Election Day.

The president gained a rare moment of bipartisan praise, with Democratic and Republican governors alike commending the performance of the federal government.
And the storm put on pause, for now, the sense that rival Mitt Romney had all the momentum in the home stretch."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... oment.html

*********************************

c.v.d.
"Commander-in-Chief"...roba da Dwight David "Ike" Eisenhower.

[Maucat]

Evidentemente anche le forze del Fato non vogliono Mitt...

[shiloh]

October 31, 2012


Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of Cincinnati)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 47% (Gravis)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (We Ask America)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

Iowa: Romney 45%, Obama 44% (University of Iowa)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Detroit News)

Michigan: Obama 48%, Romney 42% (EPIC-MRA)

North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 48%, Romney 44% (Franklin and Marshall)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 44% (Roanoke)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 43% (Marquette Law)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html