USA-presidenziali Novembre 2012

[shiloh]

October 11, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)


http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html

[shiloh]

Forget the National Polls, It's All about Nine States

Despite Mitt Romney's post-debate bump,
the fundamentals of the presidential race have not changed.
Everything comes down to six big swing states

(Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Colorado)
as well as three smaller ones (Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire).

The result is a race in which both campaigns are ignoring 41 states.

Romney's path to the White House is still very limited.

He has to win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and probably Virginia to get to 270.

If Obama hangs onto Wisconsin
--a traditionally blue state--
and wins the two western swing states,
both of which are historically trending blue,
he needs only one of the four biggest swing states.
Currently, he still has a substantial lead in Ohio, without which no Republican has ever been elected President.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/P ... tml#item-2

[shiloh]

What Biden Needs To Do Tonight

Since at least one former occupant of the office (John Nance Garner) said the vice presidency was not worth a bucket of warm piss,
one might think the vice-presidential debate tonight is worth even less.
But due to President Obama's lackluster performance in the first debate and his failure to point out that what Mitt Romney was saying on stage was often completely opposite to what he has been saying on the campaign trail all year, tonight's debate has taken on great importance.
If Biden "wins" it could stanch the bleeding.
If he loses, the media will report the score as Republicans 2, Democrats 0.
What should Biden do?
Some people are urging him to call Romney and Ryan liars but that could easily turn off independent and muddled voters.
As an alternative,
Matt Miller has written a synopsis of what Biden needs to do.
Basically, what he should say is that Romney governed as a reasonable, moderate governor of Massachusetts, enacting Romneycare, the model for Obamacare. But when he hit the Republican primaries, he moved very sharply to the right, repudiating his own health-care plan, flipping his position on abortion, and generally trying to erase everything he did in Massachusetts.
What would he do as President?
Cut taxes for the rich?
Defund Planned Parenthood?
Who knows?
The stakes are too great to let him win and find out later.
A careful walk through of Romney's history and how he has kowtowed to the Paul Ryans of the Republican Party might do the job.
Of course, other people have advice.
David Brooks suggests that Biden should not focus on the fact that Ryan's budget does not add up.
People can't do simple arithmetic, and certainly not with 12-digit numbers.
Instead, Biden should focus on the moral issue of throwing granny under the bus.
Ryan's budgetary knowledge won't help him there.
Ryan has a different task.
He has to come over as a young reformer intent on fixing a broken system.
Since his plan to replace Medicare with a voucher system is wildly unpopular, though, he has his work cut out for him.
"Don't scratch your ear, even if it itches" is the advice candidates get from their debate coaches.
The problem is the split screen that all the networks use.
So even when a candidate is not speaking, 60 million people are looking at him and any tic or strange movement could spell defeat in November.
In a slightly more rational world, scratching your ear would not mean you don't get to be Vice President, but in our world that's how it is.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/P ... tml#item-2

[shiloh]

October 11, 2012

Reaction to the Vice Presidential Debate

The vice presidential debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan was one of the best debates I can remember.

It was a great service to all Americans.

Biden had the primary goal of firing up Democrats after President Obama's lackluster performance last week.
He did that and more.

He literally responded to every single assertion of Ryan's and didn't let a single thing go unchallenged.
Democrats have to be very happy.

Biden was especially strong on foreign policy but one of his best moments was taking Ryan to task for criticizing the Obama administration's economic stimulus package while at the same time asking for stimulus funds for his own congressional district.

Ryan's goal was to build on Romney's strong performance last week and continue to reassure undecided voters.
In the end, however,
he found his toughest opponent wasn't Biden, it was his own record and the Romney campaign platform.
He had trouble playing defense under Biden's withering attacks.
Ryan was exceptionally weak on the proposed Romney tax plan -- "not mathematically possible", according to Biden -- while once again refusing to give specifics.

In terms of style, Ryan didn't take kindly to being interrupted.
It was almost as if Biden was coached to interrupt him.

Biden was more prepared, more experienced and the clear winner.

Finally,
Martha Raddatz was a wonderfully effective moderator.
She continuously pushed for specifics and forced followups to nonsense.
She should be commended by both campaigns.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... ebate.html

[shiloh]

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html

October 11, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 44% (Mason-Dixon)

Michigan: Obama 49%, Romney 42% (Detroit News)

Michigan: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Gravis)

Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Suffolk)

Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Gravis)

Pennsylvania: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Virginia: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac)

Wisconsin: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)

[shiloh]

October 13, 2012


Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Arizona: Obama 44%, Romney 42% (Rocky Mountain Poll)

Ohio: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html

*******************************************

Obama avanti in Arizona ???

questo sondaggio dev'essere un "fake"...

[shiloh]

October 14, 2012

Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Gravis)

Florida: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Public Policy Polling)

North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 47% (Public Policy Polling)


http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html

[shiloh]

October 15, 2012

Obama Remains Ahead Nationally

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney among likely voters, 49% to 46%, "basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate."

"Nearly two-thirds say they do not need any more information before Election Day, and barely one in eight is undecided or says there is a chance he could change his vote.
Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result."

"But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction.
Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate.
The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee."

A Politico/GWU poll finds Obama ahead 48% to 47%.

A Newsmax/Zogby poll shows Obama leading 47% to 44%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... nally.html

[shiloh]

October 16, 2012

Reaction to the Second Presidential Debate

If President Obama had done this well in the first debate, most would have already written off Mitt Romney.

Obama won the debate decisively.

The president had a simple formula:
Defend and explain his record while insisting that Romney wasn't being truthful.
He kept Romney on the defensive and came prepared with counter-punches to nearly every topic.

It was devastatingly effective.

The memorandum of understanding setting the rules for the debate
-- and the town hall format itself --
went out the window pretty quickly.
The debate turned confrontational within the first 20 minutes which probably pleased partisans.
Both sides saw fire in their candidate.
But it's more likely that undecided voters didn't like the confrontation at all.

In particular, Romney doesn't do testy well.
He made a big mistake trying to roll over the moderator.
He got away with it in the first debate but he looked mean tonight.
His obsession with the rules also came off as petty.

Romney was most effective when pointing out what Obama promised and what actually happened over the last four years.

He scored many points But he lost most of them by not knowing his facts on what President Obama said the morning after the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya.

Obama acted like a president in the exchange while Romney was much less.

It was Romney's Gerald Ford moment.

Candy Crowley was an excellent moderator.
She kept what could have been an unruly event on topic and very informative.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...al_debate.html

************************************

bravo Barack.
speriamo non sia troppo tardi...

[shiloh]

October 16, 2012


Latest Swing State Polls

Here are the latest polls from the battleground states, updated as needed:

Colorado: Romney 48%, Obama 47% (We Ask America)

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (YouGov)

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)

Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (YouGov)

New Hampshire: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Suffolk)

North Carolina: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (YouGov)

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (YouGov)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Quinnipiac)

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (YouGov)

Virginia: Obama 46%, Romney 45% (YouGov)


http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html


***********************************************************

p.s.
faccio presente che "We Ask America" è un sondaggista dato decisamente leaning GOOPERS:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251145693