USA-presidenziali Novembre 2012

[peanuts]

Se Rasmussen non va oltre la parità vuol dire che il vantaggio di Obama è consistente...

La vera insidia sono i dati della disoccupazione che arriveranno 4 giorni prima del voto e lì si giocherà una bella fetta di possibilità di vittoria...

Ma gli ultimi non davano un leggero rialzo?

[shiloh]

ma insomma ... non è mica detto
Quattro anni fa la novità della comunicazione politica 2.0 fu tra i fattori che portarono all'elezione di Barack Obama, il primo afroamericano a diventare presidente degli Stati Uniti. Adesso, a dieci giorni dal voto che lo contrappone allo sfidante repubblicano Mitt Romney, i new media sembrano tradirlo. O, quantomeno, mostrare un entusiasmo molto raffreddato. Lo spiegano nel blog di Corriere.it Sentimeter, i ricercatori di «Voices from the Blogs», osservatorio permanente dell'Università degli Studi di Milano.
Analizzando con metodo scientifico i temi caldi discussi sui social network, alla scoperta del cosiddetto «sentimento» della Rete, gli studiosi rilevano infatti che dalla fine del mese di settembre il rapporto di Obama con gli utenti del web si è incrinato. Con quelli di Twitter, in particolare. Tanto che oggi - dopo i tre dibattiti tra i candidati - l'orientamento degli americani sul sito di microblogging vede Romney al 46,1% contro il 39,3% dell'attuale presidente.
I SONDAGGI - Come precisano gli stessi ricercatori di «Voices from the Blogs», il sentimento della Rete non si tramuta comunque necessariamente in voto. A preoccupare Obama potrebbero essere piuttosto i risultati dei sondaggi tradizionali.
L'attuale presidente è uscito male dai primi due dibattiti con Romney, recuperando in parte solo nell'ultimo (quello sulla politica estera dello scorso lunedì). Tanto che, secondo le rilevazioni Ipsos del giorno dopo, dopo il terzo faccia a faccia il presidente in carica è tornato in vantaggio, anche se solo di un punto: 47% contro 46%. Non tutti gli istituti di ricerca però concordano sulle percentuali: per Gallup Obama ha recuperato ma resta comunque sotto di cinque punti rispetto a Romney: 51% contro 46%.

STATI IN BILICO - Notizie ancora più negative per Obama dai cosiddetti «swing States», gli Stati in bilico. Più che la somma complessiva dei voti, infatti - il caso della Florida che nel 2000 costò la presidenza ad Al Gore, insegna -, il sistema di voto americano rende decisiva la vittoria negli Stati incerti.
Tra cui, l'Ohio. Dove mercoledì, per la prima volta dopo che Obama era sempre stato in vantaggio, una rilevazione di Rasmussen indica l'attuale presidente e Romney alla pari (48%).
Sul blog FiveThirtyEight del New York Times sostiene che l'Ohio sarà decisivo anche Nate Silver, esperto di modelli statistici sull'andamento elettorale. Una sua simulazione sul conteggio dei voti conclude infatti che, su 40mila combinazioni possibili, in 38mila casi risulta che proprio chi conquisterà l'Ohio sarà il prossimo presidente americano.

non è detto che a Obama serva l'Ohio...è certo che serve a Romney.

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No Proof of Romney Surge in Battleground

Rick Klein:

"The truth is both sides are worried

-- Team Obama is nowhere near as confident about its map as public statements suggest,

and the Romney surge isn't as real (or relevant, given battleground-state polling) as Republicans are spinning.

Yet it's that map that governs still -- national polls aside,
the Romney surge hasn't spilled into the battlegrounds (particularly Ohio) enough to upend the race in Romney's favor, at least not yet."


First Read:

"Obama could still lose Ohio and get to 270 electoral votes,
and the path is not a nutty path.
He does it by winning Wisconsin
(a state that hasn't gone GOP since 84),
Iowa (a state Gore carried),
New Hampshire (a state Kerry carried),
and Colorado.
That gets him to 272.

Sorta stunning that with all of our focus on FL-OH-VA that they all three could get rendered meaningless by the Romney Dangerfield of the battleground:
Colorado.

And this is why,
despite some national polls showing Romney either tied or slightly ahead,
the narrative has never held that Obama is behind - due to all of his different paths to 270."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...tleground.html

[Amadeus]

speriamo, chissà perchè il corriere la mette negativa ... e invece il post.it positiva per Obama ( ma viene il mal di testa a farsi i conti )

http://www.ilpost.it/2012/10/24/chi-vin ... -e-romney/

[shiloh]

October 25, 2012


Romney's Momentum Seems to Have Stopped

Nate Silver:
"Mr. Romney clearly gained ground in the polls in the week or two after the Denver debate,
putting himself in a much stronger overall position in the race.
However, it seems that he is no longer doing so..."

"Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls against 6 for Mr. Romney.
In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls, to Mr. Romney's 1.
Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the Denver debate,
and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney."

"Part of the confusion (and part of the reason behind the perception that Mr. Romney is still gaining ground in the race) may be because of the headlines that accompany polls."

Mark Blumenthal:

""While the debate certainly boosted Romney's standing in the polls,
trends over the past two weeks have been negligible,
with the leader seesawing nationally within a range of roughly one percentage point.
Over the same period, the standings within the key battleground states have also remained constant.
Other poll tracking models have shown the same patterns."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... opped.html

[shiloh]

October 25, 2012


Latest Swing State Polls
Here are the latest polls from the battleground:

Colorado: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Colorado: Obama 46%, Romney 43% (Project New America)

Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 49% (Gravis)

Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Project New America)

Iowa:: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

Michigan: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Foster McCollum)

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist)

North Carolina: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Public Policy Polling)

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen)

Virginia: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Public Policy Polling)

Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Virginia: Romney 47%, Obama 45% (Fox News)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... polls.html

[shiloh]

Rasmussen Has a Two-Point Republican Bias Compared to Other Pollsters

Enough presidential polling data is now available to analyze Rasmussen's data. Here is the methodology.
The database contains 119 Rasmussen state polls from Jan. 1, 2012 until yesterday..
For each poll, a check was made to see if at least one poll from a different nonpartisan pollster was in the data base within a week either way from the Rasmussen poll.
For example, for Rasmussen's poll of North Carolina on Oct. 2, a check was made for any other polls of North Carolina whose midpoint was between Sept. 25 and Oct 9.
In this case, polls from PPP, ARG, SurveyUSA, and High Point University were found.
For 82 polls, comparison polls within a week were found.
For the other 37 Rasmussen polls, no other nonpartisan pollster surveyed the state within a week of Rasmussen's poll, so those polls were not used in this analysis.


segue al link:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/P ... tml#item-8

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hai capito questo Rasmuppet...è il Crespi dei Goopers.

[shiloh]

giovedì 25 ottobre 2012

Here’s What Mitt Won’t Tell You: President Obama Is Winning.

Mitt Romney says he’s “winning.”

So did Charlie Sheen.

It’s an old Karl Rove strategy.

But it just isn’t true.

In this morning’s Politico Playbook, Mike Allen points out the facts:


A cold shower for the GOP:
Most polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa—by MORE than Obama trails in North Carolina.

The fact is that if the president wins in Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa or Nevada, he wins.

He is up in all of these states, especially in polls that include people who only have cell phones.

http://www.nationalmemo.com/heres-what- ... s-winning/

[shiloh]

Proposal Would Give Extra 29 Electoral Votes

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) proposed a Constitutional amendment that would give the winner of the popular vote in the presidential race an additional 29 electoral votes, The Hill reports.

"Swing states would still retain their importance in the Electoral College, but the additional 29 delegates awarded to the popular vote winner would fundamentally alter the focus of the campaigns.

Candidates would have to target voters in states they have no chance of winning,
as well as in states they have no chance of losing."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... votes.html

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questa mi parrebbe una proposta sensata.
perchè sicuramente porterebbe al voto più persone.
perchè ora è chiaro che un Gooper che abita in California non è molto incentivato a recarsi alle urne perchè sa che lo stato sarà vinto dai democratici.
l'opposto succede ad un democratico che abita in Oklahoma,
stato pieno di Repubblicani ...e serpenti a sonagli.
(probabilmente vivono in simbiosi come l'anemone e il paguro...).

[shiloh]

October 27, 2012


Ohio Is Not a Toss Up

Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio
-- made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days --
and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.

"There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich... It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up.

Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio's central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... ss_up.html

[shiloh]

October 28, 2012

Is New Romney Ad in Ohio a Sign He's Losing?
The Detroit Free Press reports Mitt Romney's new ad in Ohio is an attempt to turn the auto bailout against President Obama in a state that could make or break Romney's presidential hopes.

Think Progress says the ad contains "four myths."

It's also a fairly clear indication -- despite surrogates claiming Romney is now leading in Ohio -- that he's more likely running behind as the polling averages show.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... osing.html

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October 28, 2012

A Cold Civil War

Andrew Sullivan notes that if Virginia, Florida and North Carolina flip back to the GOP from President Obama this November, Mitt Romney will have won every state in the old Confederacy.

"I think America is currently in a Cold Civil War.
The parties, of course, have switched sides since the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
The party of the Union and Lincoln is now the Democratic party.
The party of the Confederacy is now the GOP.
And racial polarization is at record levels, with whites entirely responsible for reversing Obama's 2008 inroads into the old Confederacy in three Southern states.
You only have to look at the electoral map in 1992 and 1996, when Clinton won, to see how the consolidation of a Confederacy-based GOP and a Union-based Democratic party has intensified - and now even more under a black president from, ahem, Illinois."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... l_war.html

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October 28, 2012

Obama Holds Advantage Heading Into Final Week

An Associated Press analysis finds President Obama
"is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio."

"While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270.
Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... _week.html