USA-presidenziali Novembre 2012

[shiloh]

State..........Obama.........Romney.........Start.......End.........Pollster
Missouri........45%............44%.............May 24...May 27......PPP
Wisconsin......51%............43%.............May 23...May 26.....Marquette Law School


http://electoral-vote.com/

[shiloh]

breve aggiornamento flash.

ad oggi:

Obama......................304 E.V.
Romney.....................225 E.V.

9 voti non assegnati in quanto in assoluta parità.

http://electoral-vote.com/

[shiloh]

Ten Potential Game Changers that Could Happen Before the Election

We all know that in politics, a week is a long time.
What could happen between now and November that would make everyone forget the May jobs report instantly?
The Hill has compiled a list of 10 potential events that could upend the campaign.
Here is the list.

• European financial meltdown
• Turmoil in the domestic financial sector
• Expansion of the conflict in Syria
• Israeli military strike against Iran
• Supreme Court strikes down the 2010 healthcare reform law
• Terrorist attack
• Natural disaster
• Outside money
• Presidential debates
• Gaffes

http://electoral-vote.com/

[shiloh]

31-05-2012

Obama......................304 E.V.
Romney.....................225 E.V.

9 voti non assegnati in quanto in assoluta parità.

http://electoral-vote.com/

03-06-2012

Obama......................289 E.V.
Romney.....................243 E.V.

6 voti non assegnati in quanto in assoluta parità.

http://electoral-vote.com/

[shiloh]

June 05, 2012

Obama Ahead in Florida

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney by four points in the key battleground state, 50% to 46%.

Key findings:
"Neither of Florida's most discussed Vice Presidential prospects would have a huge impact on the race.
Marco Rubio is slightly popular with a 44/40 approval rating, but his presence on the ticket would only narrow Obama's lead to 49-46... Jeb Bush wouldn't help Romney either.
He has a 48/42 favorability rating but with him as the VP Obama's lead actually increases ever so slightly to 5 points at 50/45."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... orida.html

[peanuts]

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2012/06 ... ef=HRESS-3

Beh, spero che presto il pastore jones spenda i soldi che ha in medicine. Invano, spero.

[shiloh]

June 7, 2012, 12:23 pm
Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage

By NATE SILVER


The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election.
But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls,
and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level.
Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent.
The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes,
but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible,
given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then.
Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

continua al link:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... more-31097

[shiloh]

Nate Silver,
di "fivethirtyeight"
(538...che corrisponde al numero totale di electoral votes che assegnano gli stati americani)
uno dei guru di analisi dei sondaggi americani,
ha iniziato a pubblicare il suo modello previsionale,che viene aggiornato periodicamente,
per le presidenziali americane qui:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

consultate la colonna di destra :
Five Thirty Eight Forecast.

ad oggi Obama è dato in vantaggio 291 a 247,

ma la partita appare lunga,incerta e complessa.

[peanuts]

Parafrasando Robert Harris in "Fatherland" (gran romanzo, leggetevelo, e anche "Archangel"), sembra impossibile che i repubblicani non riescano a trovare un candidato che non abbia l'aria del delinquente.

[shiloh]

June 20, 2012
Obama Holds Wide Lead Over Romney

A new Bloomberg poll shows President Obama leads Mitt Romney by a wide margin, 53% to 40% among likely voters, even as six in 10 say the nation is headed down the wrong track.

Meanwhile, just 39% view Romney favorably,
while 48% see him unfavorably.
A majority of likely voters, 55%, view him as more out of touch with average Americans compared with 36% who say the president is more out of touch.

Key finding:

"The presidential race is roughly tied among the most enthusiastic voters, 49% of whom back Romney compared with 48% for Obama.
Still, Romney inspires far less enthusiasm even among his supporters than does Obama, with 35% of Romney backers saying their support for him is 'very strong,' compared with 51% of Obama backers who say so."

Said pollster Ann Selzer:
"You can see in these data how important turnout will be.
Those most enthusiastic about the election are more supportive of Romney, but Obama's voters are more locked into their candidate than Romney's.
Building resolve to vote and making the vote stick is job one, and both candidates face obstacles toward getting that done."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/ ... omney.html